The Hindu : "Vajpayee's last push for peace"

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Tuesday, May 06, 2003

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"Vajpayee's last push for peace"

By Karl F. Inderfurth

What is needed now is for the parties to take those steps envisioned in the recent Vajpayee-Jamali exchange, but also to formulate a longer term pathway to resolving the dispute.

THE PRIME Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee's statement to the Rajya Sabha that he will seek a "new beginning" with Pakistan and that "we should not remain a slave to the past" did not surprise me. I heard similar statements from him when we held a private, hour-long meeting at his residence during my first visit to New Delhi as the new Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs in September 1997.

As Prime Minister, he has demonstrated the courage of his strongly held conviction that India and Pakistan should live in peace — first at Lahore in 1999 and then at Agra in 2001. Now Mr. Vajpayee is ready for his third attempt — one that he hopes will be "decisive" and one that will surely be "my last attempt (at peacemaking)" during his lifetime. A potentially promising start in this final push for peace has already begun.

Mr. Vajpayee's telephone conversation with the Pakistan Prime Minister, Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali, on April 28, was the result of his recent visit to Kashmir in which he extended a "hand of friendship" to Pakistan if it is prepared to reciprocate. In their conversation, Mr. Vajpayee emphasised the importance of economic cooperation, cultural exchanges and people-to-people contacts between the two countries. Mr. Jamali stressed the importance of reviving sports contacts. Pakistan is keen to see a breakthrough in cricketing ties with India. Subsequently, Mr. Vajpayee announced that he was prepared to return India's High Commissioner to Pakistan and to restore civil aviation links.

On his visit to the region this week, the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage, should build on these statements, but his starting point must be with the pledge the Pakistan President, Pervez Musharraf, made to him on his visit to the region in June of 2002. At that time Gen. Musharraf said he would seek a "permanent end" to militant incursions across the Kashmir ceasefire line.

That has not happened, and the dangers are escalating. As the CIA director, George Tenet, stated recently: "The cycles of tension between India and Pakistan are growing shorter. Pakistan continues to support groups that resist India's presence in Kashmir in an effort to bring India to the negotiating table." Rather than bringing India to the table, Pakistan's continuing support for these groups could provoke a war.

The recent positive change in Indo-Pakistani rhetoric could provide the United States an opportunity to play the role of facilitator in a serious dialogue between the two countries — a role that is possible today because of the improved relations of the U.S. with India starting under President Clinton and continuing under President Bush and the transformation of relations with Pakistan as a result of 9/11 and Gen. Musharraf's decision to become a key ally in the `war on terrorism.'

What is needed now is for the parties to take those steps envisioned in the recent Vajpayee-Jamali exchange, but also to formulate a longer term pathway to resolving the dispute that has poisoned their relationship since their mutual independence in 1947 — Kashmir. Actions along this pathway should include:

— First, an end of all Pakistani support for cross-border infiltration, resulting in a substantial reduction in internal political violence in Kashmir;

— Second, a mutual affirmation for the respect of the Line of Control that separates the Indian and Pakistani-held portions of Kashmir. This should include monitoring and confidence-building measures, with international technical assistance, including from the U.S., as requested by both sides.

— Third, a significant reduction in the Indian armed security presence in Kashmir and improved respect for human rights, accelerating the process that has begun with the new State Government of Mufti Mohammad Sayeed promising a "healing touch" for Kashmiris.

— Fourth, substantial autonomy for the 13 million people of the Kashmir region, of whom about nine million are under Indian control and four million under Pakistani control.

— Fifth, functional arrangements on trade, travel, cultural and religious affairs, and economic development that would institutionalise cooperative relations among Indians, Pakistanis and local Kashmiri representatives and institutions.

— Sixth, concrete (meaning financial and investment) international support for joint development and other cooperative projects on both sides of the LoC, revitalising a Kashmir economy and infrastructure devastated by years of conflict.

— Finally, negotiated Indian and Pakistani agreements on long-term arrangements concerning Kashmir, with the wishes of the people of Kashmir taken into account, possibly followed by formal United Nations Security Council endorsement of these agreements superseding the resolutions adopted at the beginning of the conflict more than 50 years ago.

During Mr. Clinton's visit to India and Pakistan in March 2000, he spoke about four principles — the `4Rs' they were called — the need for mutual restraint, respect for the LoC, rejection of violence and resumption of dialogue. India and Pakistan should seize the opportunity presented by Mr. Vajpayee's latest initiative to lay the groundwork for a fifth `R' — a long-term resolution of the conflict.

In seeking a solution, it will clearly not be possible for either side to achieve its maximalist position. Both need to think creatively and flexibly about a solution that would be peaceful, honourable and implementable; one that would truly serve the legitimate interests of all the parties involved, including Kashmiris, and one that both New Delhi and Islamabad could accept.

The ever-present risk of conflict in South Asia poses a grave threat to Pakistan's future, to India's aspirations as an emerging global power, and to the stability of the region. In seeking a way out of their historical conundrum, Prime Minister Vajpayee's recent statement in Kashmir is the best possible guide: "It is time to change things".

If this is done, I am personally convinced of two things — that a Nobel Peace Prize would await the Indian and Pakistani leaders who accomplish this task and, even more important, that they will receive the undying gratitude of the peoples of their two countries and of the international community.

(The writer was Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs from 1997-2001. He is currently a Professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University in Washington, D.C.)

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