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The next stage

THE WORLD CUP has reached that stage where ostensibly the men have been separated from the boys, the chaff from the cricketing grain. The teams that remain in the competition are supposed to be six of the best. But anyone who runs an eye through the so-called `Super Six' list cannot fail to notice that it has a very peculiar appearance about it. The oddity is best represented by the presence of a team such as Kenya (which was widely regarded as a knockover but now comfortably positioned in second place) and the absence of a team such as South Africa (the number two favourites which crashed ignominiously out). A part of the reason for such inconceivable results is the vagaries of one-day cricket — upsets are a part of the very nature of the game. But the major causes for the surprise line-up in the Super Six were the bad weather, which prevented a result in some matches, and the decision of England and New Zealand not to play certain matches, which left teams such as Zimbabwe and Kenya with advantageous bonus points. As this tournament has clearly shown, choosing not to play (whether for political or security reasons) has a bearing on much more than merely the side that forfeits the match or the one that secures the bonus points. Also affected are the fortunes of other participating teams, which may find themselves hugely disadvantaged by a particular side's decision to forfeit a match. The ICC must ensure that the playing field is level and that in future tournaments, forfeiture by one team does not impact adversely on others in the same group.

With South Africa (cheated by a combination of indifferent weather and indifferent cricket) and Pakistan (which never really got into its stride) out of the reckoning, Australia — which began the tournament as front-runners — must rank as even firmer favourites to win cricket's biggest prize. The Australians have stamped their superiority on the tournament from the very first match they have played. It was only in their last group match against England that the Australian side showed some signs of fallibility, teetering on the verge of defeat before pulling off another dramatic victory. Having begun on a dismal note, the constantly improving Indian side — on the basis of recent performance — is now widely regarded, by both bookmakers and cricket pundits, as the second favourite. How enormous a change in public expectation this is can be gauged from the fact that only a couple of weeks ago serious doubts were raised about whether India would even qualify for the Super Six. Captain Sourav Ganguly's first job of course is to ensure that India plays the next few matches well and books a place for itself in the semi-finals. But he and his team must be aware that, as things stand, this World Cup presents a huge opportunity and that India now has a real chance of entering the finals of the tournament.

Among the other teams that pose a challenge are Sri Lanka, which has performed unevenly until now but has shown it has both the class and the ability to beat the best of sides. Less fancied but also in the running is New Zealand. The Kiwis have not had a great tournament so far and therefore not too many points to their tally, but a victory over Zimbabwe and another win over either India or Australia may be enough to see them through to a spot in the semi-finals. How India plays the next couple of matches may provide the clues about how far Sourav Ganguly and his men will go in the tournament. No side is equal to Australia on current form, but India must believe it has a fair chance, or at least an even one, against other challengers in the fray such as Sri Lanka and New Zealand. As this and previous World Cups have demonstrated, it is foolish to make firm predictions about a game as capricious as one-day cricket. But it is a measure of how far India has come in this tournament that the team virtually everyone had written off is now regarded as the one that is most likely to play Australia in the finals.

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