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`Unhappy' U.S. issues ultimatum to Ankara

By Atul Aneja

MANAMA FEB. 19. In an indication that it is not giving up on its plans to attack, the U.S. has given a virtual ultimatum to Turkey to decide whether it is ready to open its territory for a U.S.- led attack on northern Iraq.

Diplomatic sources said the U.S. had been unhappy with the Turkish delay in passing a legislation that will unable it to position its forces in Turkey and use the Turkish territory to transit troops into northern Iraq. By pushing in its forces quickly, the U.S. is keen to establish control over the northern Iraqi oil fields spread out around the oil cities of Mosul and Kirkuk soon. Reports about Iraqi plans to blow up oil fields in this area ahead of a U.S. attack appear to have added a sense of urgency to Washington's war plans in this area.

Sources said that Turkey might have around 48 hours to decide whether or not it will allow its territory to be used as a staging post for the U.S. attack on northern Iraq. Otherwise, the U.S. will consider contingency plans to position its forces into northern Iraq from an alternative location.

Turkey has reportedly demanded a $30 billion package as the price for allowing the U.S. forces to operate from its soil. This is nearly twice the aid package that the two sides had been discussing in recent weeks. Turkish authorities have been pointing out that this amount is necessary to offset Turkey's perceived losses in case the U.S. attacks Iraq. Without such a hefty package, Turkey does not feel inclined to be dragged into a war which 94 per cent of its population opposes. Besides, the Turks had to face a raging insurgency in the last Persian Gulf war, which was engineered by a section of Kurdish refugees that fled from Iraq during that war.

The Turks, however, may find it difficult to flout the U.S. deadline for making up its mind. In case, it does so, there is a possibility that Turkey may be marginalised from shaping developments that are likely to affect it deeply in the future.

For instance, by not cooperating with the U.S., Ankara is likely to lose an opportunity to position some of its own forces in northern Iraq that may be necessary to safeguard some of its vital interests. Without its own troops, Turkey would lose any direct leverage on preventing the pro-U.S. Kurdish groups — the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) from establishing influence over Mosul and Kirkuk.

In fact, aware of the Turkish concerns, the U.S. has already agreed to the Turkish proposal to push its forces in considerable depth into northern Iraq. Besides, the U.S. has also agreed to the Turkish demand of not posting its forces in northern Iraq under a U.S.-led coalition command. Both sides are believed to have agreed on opening a joint command centre at Diyarbakir on the Turkey-Iraq border.

While trying to extract maximum mileage during negotiations, the Turkish authorities may, nevertheless, be getting ready to finalise a deal with the U.S.

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