Friday, Jan 10, 2003
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In its latest (December 2002) Quarterly Review of the Economy, the council said the GDP projection was revised from September's 4.8 per cent because the actual trends on some of the key parameters differed from the projections made in the last review. "The growth rate of exports has been double the projected rate in the first half while imports have increased by 9 per cent as compared to the projected rate of 6 per cent. "The wholesale price index based inflation rate is now at less than 3.5 per cent as compared to the projection of 5 per cent and the real GDP growth in first half of this fiscal is 5.8 per cent as compared to the projection for the full year at 4.8 per cent," it said. The report added, "The latest forecasts are still subject to uncertainties over the estimates of agricultural output and developing international scenario on oil price and supplies in the context of intensified tension between the U.S. and Iraq". Among the key assumptions it retained from the previous forecast, the NCAER listed the stagnant agricultural growth, reduction in nominal lending rate in the financial markets by 0.5 percentage points, capital inflows under FDI by $2 billion and global real GDP increase of 2.5 per cent. — UNI
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