The Hindu : A dangerous confrontation.

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Saturday, Jan 04, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - Editorials

A dangerous confrontation.

NORTH KOREA AND the U.S. appear to have locked themselves into a cycle of provocation and counter-provocation that has the potential for disastrous consequences since it revolves around the issue of Pyongyang's acquisition of a nuclear weapon capability. The latest provocation from the North Korean side has been its warning that it was not currently able to meet commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty since the U.S. had threatened to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike. What was more sinister was that Pyongyang specified that the commitment it would not be able to abide by was the obligation of states possessing nuclear weapons to not use them against states that do not have such weapons. In a context where North Korea has already declared that it possesses a nuclear weapon capability this statement has to be read as a threat to use such weapons against U.S. allies, South Korea and Japan, in the event of Washington launching a pre-emptive strike. Pyongyang's latest threat has followed close on the heels of actions it has taken to nullify international monitoring of its nuclear capability. North Korea has expelled weapons monitors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, disabled cameras set up to observe sites connected with the nuclear programme and broken the seals that had restricted the access its technicians had to those facilities. The technicians are understood to have begun work on making two facilities — a small research reactor that can produce plutonium and a fuel reprocessing plant — operational. If the facilities are put into full operation, Pyongyang could have enough weapon grade plutonium for five bombs before the middle of this year.

But provocative steps have by no means been taken by Pyongyang alone. The current U.S. administration, conditioned as it has been by the President, George W. Bush's inclusion of North Korea in the "axis of evil", has taken a far more aggressive posture towards Pyongyang than had its predecessor. Washington had forced a disclosure from Pyongyang that it has also tried to acquire a nuclear weapon capability by the uranium-enrichment route, slowed down the multi-lateral programme to build light-water reactors to generate electricity and cut off fuel oil supplies. As Washington took these successive measures to force the North Korean nuclear genie back into the bottle it only convinced Pyongyang that the U.S. administration was reneging on its commitments under the "Agreed Framework" signed by the two countries in 1994. North Korea has probably calculated that it can take a tough stance since it has reason to believe that it is less likely to become the target of a U.S. strike than is Iraq. The South Korean capital and a large part of the U.S. military in that country are well within artillery range of North Korean forces and Pyongyang can hit Japan with its missiles.

The fact that U.S. troops and allies in East Asia are vulnerable to an attack by North Korea's forces has prodded Washington to opt for a more cautious approach than the aggressive policy adopted in respect to Iraq. Mr. Bush stated his belief that "bold diplomacy" could solve the problem confronting him on the North Korean front. This diplomatic drive is directed at an objective termed "tailored containment". In essence, this process involves the imposition of economic sanctions on North Korea by the U.S. and its allies and the persuading of China and Russia to exert their influence. However, these efforts appear to be floundering even before they have been properly launched. Seoul has declared that it would not participate in a sanctions-enforcement policy and, cleverly alluding to the stand-off between the U.S. and Cuba, pointed out that pressure and isolation do not work with communist countries. That being the case, the current U. S. administration might be forced to take a lesson from its predecessor's experience and launch a fresh phase of engagement with North Korea.

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