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CII survey forecasts rise in sales of many companies

By Our Special Correspondent

NEW DELHI DEC. 30. The present trend of recovery in manufacturing seen during the last few months of 2002 is expected to continue in the first half of 2003.

Forecasting this, the latest Manufacturing ASCON Survey brought out by the Confederation of Indian Industry says that in the next six months, sales of companies in many industrial sectors will rise between 5 and 10 per cent (on a yearly basis). In some areas, sales are expected to rise by more than 10 to 15 per cent and in a few, sales might cross 15 per cent.

Of the 58 manufacturing sectors, for which the survey has estimated future sales and production, 26 come in the 5 to 10 per cent category. The prominent sectors in this category include car and truck tyres, whose production is estimated to grow by 6 to 8 per cent (for the first nine months of the fiscal year, it was 10 per cent).

The beer industry is another sector in this category of 5 to 10 per cent (last nine months, it was 12 per cent). Cement (this year, nine per cent), construction (10 per cent), cold-rolled steel strips (10 per cent), electrical fans (nine per cent), electrical machinery, glass industry (seven per cent), crude oil and petroleum products, pulp and paper (five per cent), rubber goods (11 per cent), and steel (seven per cent) are the other prominent sectors in this category.

Four sectors out of 58 are forecast to grow by more than 15 per cent (on a yearly basis) in the next six months. Colour televisions are expected to grow by 25 per cent (this year also 25 per cent), electronic components by 15 to 20 per cent (14 per cent), fluid power by 21 per cent (20 per cent) and personal computers by 20 to 25 per cent (eight per cent).

Nine sectors are expected to grow between 10 and 15 per cent. Among them are auto components (this year, 18 per cent), automobiles (20 per cent), air conditioners (20 per cent), ceramics (nine per cent), paints (10 per cent) and pharmaceuticals (last nine months of this fiscal year, 12 per cent). Fourteen sectors are expected to grow by 5 to 10 per cent (on a yearly basis) in the next six months.

Among them are: aluminium (eight per cent), castings (one per cent), fertilizer (sales fell by 10 per cent because of drought), industrial gases (three per cent), processed foods (six per cent), pumps (five per cent), soaps (1.5 per cent), tea (three per cent) and vanaspati (this year there was a decrease of three per cent).

Two sectors are not likely to see any increase or decrease in sales. These are plastics (eight per cent) and textile machinery (11 per cent).

Three sectors are likely to see a decline in sales. These are cigarettes (in the first nine months of this year, sales went up by 3.5 per cent), diesel engines (this year, also down by 10 per cent) and edible oil (12 per cent), which will do badly because this year's drought will produce less seeds to crush.

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