The Hindu : Iraq: the fog of war

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Monday, Dec 23, 2002

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Iraq: the fog of war

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI DEC. 22. The very moment there is clarity on the imminence of war, a fog begins to form on how it will unfold. In declaring Iraq to be in "material breach'' of the resolutions of the United Nations Security Council, the Bush Administration has signalled its political intent to launch a war in the coming weeks against Baghdad.

Confident that the U.N. will provide the cover, the U.S. has begun to reinforce its military presence in the Persian Gulf, tied up with most of Iraq's neighbours for cooperation, and created a coalition out of the fractious Iraqi political opposition, which could eventually become the provisional government of Iraq.

The broad pieces are in place to achieve the declared political objective of ousting President Saddam Hussein from Baghdad. However, no nation about to embark on a war would reveal its precise timing or strategy.

Much of the current speculation that the war will begin at the end of January or early February is based on the U.N.'s time-table and not America's. The second report of the U.N. inspectors is expected to be submitted to the UNSC on January 27, which, going by the current form, should hold Baghdad guilty one way or the other.

Smart capitals in the region will pay less attention to the irrelevant debate at the U.N., which is only about finding an excuse for the war.

They will focus on getting intelligence from the ground on how the military heat from the United States has begun to affect regime stability in Baghdad. For a lot is likely to happen in and around Iraq before the U.S. military operations begin.

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There are generally three ways in which regimes of the kind Saddam Hussein runs begin to crumble. One is a revolt from within the top layers of the regime coming in the form of a military coup. A massive popular uprising or a war imposed by a superior military power are other ways to bring about a change.

Past American attempts at fomenting a coup within the Iraqi military have failed. At the end of the 1991 war against Iraq, the U.S. chose not to invade Baghdad. It called on the Kurds in the north and Shias in the south of Iraq to revolt, but let them down and allowed Saddam Hussein to brutally crush the uprisings.

But this time around, all the three elements could come into play. Fairly early on in the war, the U.S. would want to seize and occupy parts of Iraqi territory. It might also encourage popular opposition to Saddam Hussein to rise in the north and south. Washington would also hope that pressures generated from these developments would help break the core of the regime and avoid a forcible occupation of Baghdad by American troops.

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The last time Baghdad was taken forcibly was in 1941 by the British. The Indian Army played a key role in that operation. A military coup by pro-German Iraqi officers forced Britain to act. The British moved the 10 Indian Infantry Division immediately to Basra in southern Iraq.

The first brigade of the division landed in Basra on April 18 and took control of the city. The rest of the division landed in Basra by May 6 and began advancing towards Baghdad. Iraq mobilised the German air power to counter the British moves. Besides the Indian troops, Britain also got in its Arab forces from Palestine and Baghdad fell on May 30.

Despite being outnumbered three to one, the British forces conquered the country in a few weeks. Unlike the British, the U.S. faces no threat from another major power in Iraq, and its extraordinary air superiority will be put to full use. Regime resistance might not even last a few weeks.

The key might lie in the American ability to let Saddam Hussein's opponents to transform the nature of the war from "external occupation'' to "liberation of the Iraqi people.'' While the Kurds in the North are ready to move against Saddam Hussein, the Shias in the south who form the majority of the Iraqi population could be the wild card in American deck.

Despite its high stakes in Iraq, India has chosen to opt out of the possible Gulf war. It neither wants to oppose the Bush Administration, which has made up its mind nor risk sticking its neck out in defence of Baghdad. The United States has not formally asked India for military support in the war nor is India keen to offer it if the American action is a unilateral one. But the Indian position might change if the American war gets the blessings of the U.N.

While India has decided to play it safe, one can only hope there is some corner in the South Block where planning is afoot to cope with all potential outcomes from the possible war.

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