The Hindu : U.S. troop deployments around Iraq still insufficient

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Monday, Dec 23, 2002

International

International

U.S. troop deployments around Iraq still insufficient

By Atul Aneja

MANAMA(BAHRAIN) DEC. 22. While there are political signals indicating that the timetable for a possible U.S. led war against Iraq may get advanced, troop mobilisation in the region for a sustained campaign against Baghdad is yet to be completed. The intensity of the U.S. exhortations seeking more aggressive inspections by the United Nations weapons inspectors in Iraq has increased over the last one week.

The U.S. has now decided to part with some intelligence information related to Iraq's programme of unconventional weapons. Analysts point out that armed with new data, the U.N. inspectors would be in better position to investigate and judge whether the Iraqis have concealed information about their alleged programme of mass destruction weapons. Any conclusion that Iraq has made insufficient disclosures and is in material breach of the U.N. Security Council resolution 1441, could provide the United States the justification to mount an attack against Iraq. Diplomatic sources say it is possible that the U.N. may make a pronouncement on the Iraqi weapons programme in early January that could influence a U.S. decision on Iraq.

The U.S. propaganda campaign, mainly through air dropped leaflets targeting Iraqi forces deployed in Southern Iraq, especially near the confluence of the Tigris and the Euphrates has intensified in the last week. This area is of considerable strategic importance as it opens the door for an invading force in the direction of Baghdad and the holy cities of Najaf and Karbala. The U.S. troop deployments, however, have, so far, not matched the political indications emerging from Washington and London.

While there are signs that the U.S. may speed up mobilisation, a force build up in the region will have to be expanded rapidly, in case a war around mid-January against Iraq can be considered, sources say. The US, it is estimated, would like to position around 250,000 to 300,000 troops to ensure overwhelming military superiority over Iraq. That would include deployment of four divisions in Kuwait.

But only around 100,000 troops may be available by early next month, after taking into account the additional 50,000 soldiers whose deployment in around the Persian Gulf has been ordered recently. The transportation of the 62 tonne M1 Abrams tanks in sufficient numbers is also time-consuming and is yet to conclude. The U.S. may also have to push in more aircraft in the region. As of now around 400 planes are available for operations. But nearly 1000 aircraft may be required during the war. Analysts point out that additional air elements can be brought in fairly quickly, but, the U.S. may encounter greater difficulty in accessing the around 20 air bases that it might require to conduct round the clock air raids.

The U.S., it is estimated, has access to 10 active air bases presently. The U.S. naval deployments may have to receive considerable attention in the coming days. Two U.S. aircraft carriers — the Harry S. Truman and the Constellation are presently deployed in the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf.

But nearly five to six carriers out of a total U.S. strength of 12 would need to be inducted quickly in the region before a war commences.

The carrier group, Carl Vinson, is expected to be ready for deployment in the region by early January, while the carrier Nimitz, it is estimated, can be readied for battle by January end.

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