A revolt that wasn't

What was paraded as an attempt to overthrow the Mori Government to begin reform of a corrupt system was no more than an LDP power struggle, reports F. J. KHERGAMVALA.

MOST OF the world perhaps agrees that the International Olympic Committee (IOC) has earned the reputation of being the most corrupt organisation of our times. Except the Japanese, who will argue that their ruling Liberal Democratic Party gets the gold medal. For the past three weeks it appeared there something was being done about it.

But soon the people, who had thought a reformist crusader had emerged, felt betrayed by the political establishment. Late on Monday evening, Mr. Koichi Kato, a prominent LDP figure, announced that his supporters could abstain from the no- confidence motion against the Prime Minister, Mr. Yoshiro Mori, but would not support it. He called it ``an honourable retreat.'' The reformist had chickened out. What was paraded as an attempt to overthrow the Government to begin reform of a corrupt system was no more than an LDP power struggle which was given up even before swords were drawn.

Mr. Kato had raised the hopes of a great majority of the Japanese in the first week of this month when he confirmed news leaks that a big challenge was being mounted to Mr. Mori. The challenge would come from two fronts. The Opposition would jointly sponsor a no-confidence motion on the day of deliberations on the supplementary budget. It would ride piggy-back on a Kato-led revolt within the LDP.

Why Mr. Mori was back in office on Tuesday morning was because his challengers within the LDP had backed off and, at a Lower House ballot taken on a no-confidence motion, the Opposition was left holding the bag of 190 votes, the sum of the seats held by the four Opposition parties, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), the Liberals, the Socialist Democratic Party and the Japan Communist Party. They were ditched by two LDP factions and some unaffiliated LDP members. The motion was voted down 237 to 190, with 52 abstentions, of which 41 were from within the LDP.

It is quite another matter that a chain of events has been set in motion in which Mr. Mori will be sacrificed, within weeks or by March at the latest. The LDP just cannot risk a Mori captaincy during the July 2000 elections to half the Upper House. The LDP's largest group, led by Mr. Ryutaro Hashimoto, is opposed to Mr. Mori continuing beyond a face-saving interval.

Mr. Kato, who hatched the plan with his close colleague, Mr. Taku Yamasaki, had felt he could force the LDP mainstream factions to force a Mori ouster. He suggested that the Opposition motion would be supported by 64 members of the Kato and Yamasaki factions plus some more. It was not certain that Mr. Kato would succeed Mr. Mori, but, if the no-confidence motion worked, it was highly probable that at a Lower House vote would elect him. For, Mr. Mori would have had to resign or call an election, an event too horrendous for any in the LDP to contemplate.

This would also be sweet revenge for Mr. Mori joining hands with the late Prime Minister, Takeo Fukuda, to stab in the back the then Prime Minister, Mr. Masayoshi Ohira, to whom Mr. Kato was a close aide. When the LDP's main intimidator and hatchet-man, Mr. Hiromu Nonaka, who is secretary-general, threatened to expel Mr. Kato and Mr. Yamasaki from the LDP, Mr. Kato reminded him that in 1980, the party did not warn of any punishment to Mr. Fukuda and this same Mr. Mori for their treachery against the then party leadership.

Mr. Kato scoffed at the threats and said on the evening of the no-confidence vote, ``I am 100 per-cent certain of success,'' in the ``decisive battle''. This truly inspired the Japanese people who swamped TV network anchors with e-mail messages and phone calls asking them to tell Mr. Kato to do battle against Mr. Mori and the corrupt elders of the party, which in Japan's case is also the system.The timing of the Kato-led rebellion was perfect but its preparedness, much less so. Mr. Kato wanted to seize power before the January 6 reorganisation of the Central Government, when Ministries would be amalgamated or split up. He wanted to be in charge of this change.

Mr. Mori's public opinion ratings were at a nadir. Not a single media organ polled more than 18 per cent that supported him. All reported disapproval rates between 67 and 72 per cent. A series of personal gaffes by a Prime Minister who is totally inept at governance, but was placed in the chair by five elders including Mr. Nonaka, had contributed to this.

Mr. Kato went over the heads of the LDP factions and with a well- conceived media blitz, including six TV interviews on the day preceding the vote, got the public behind him in an inspiring performance. So, what went wrong?

Mr. Kato forgot to mobilise the numbers of his own faction, which was split by the elders who threatened Kato-backers they would be deprived of funds at election time. Despite all this, almost all calculations showed Mr. Kato's revolt losing by just four votes. In the end, he did not have the stomach to do battle and it was found he too was using an emissary to cut a deal, thus betraying the public which had believed that this was a principled challenge. A dishonourable retreat in a power struggle.

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