Russia inching back to W. Asia scene

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN), NOV. 25. After a decade during which they have largely been absent from the West Asian scene, except for sporadic forays, the Russians are now steadily pushing their way back into the region.

While the Russians had not allowed their linkages to Iraq to atrophy in this period, they are now re-energising their involvement with other aspects of the West Asian situation including the peace negotiations and the strategic affairs of the Persian Gulf. Official efforts are paralleled by the extremely vigorous enterprise being displayed in these parts by private individuals from the states of the erstwhile Soviet Union.

Russia's latest effort to end the isolation of Iraq has come in the form of a call to Kuwait to end its support for the ``no- fly'' zones that the U.S. has unilaterally imposed on sectors in northern and southern Iraq. Kuwait has provided the U.S. Air Force with bases from which they can operate aircraft that patrol the zones to prevent Iraq from carrying out military flights. For most of the last decade, the U.S. was also able to prevent or severely restrict even civilian flights in these zones. But Russia has led a whole list of nations that have defied the U.S. ban and flown civilian aircraft, thinly disguised as humanitarian missions, into Baghdad over the last two months. At the time Russia had insisted, in contradiction of the U.S. position, that they did not require prior permission from the U.N. committee supervising sanctions the anti-Iraq sanctions to operate these flights. Since then Russia has become more vocal in rejecting the validity of the U.S. ban.

It is not clear whether Russian diplomacy had a major role to play but the Organisation of the Islamic Conference at its recent summit also declared its opposition to the imposition of the ``no-fly'' zones.

This declaration was anomalous since two prominent OIC members, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, provide the U.S. with the bases from which they enforce the zone. It is unlikely that these two Gulf states will heed the Russian request especially since the U.S. Defence Secretary, Mr. William Cohen, has ruled out any change in the policy.

Besides chipping away at the sanctions policy vis a vis Iraq, the Russians have also begun to show keener interest in fulfilling their role as the co-sponsors of the peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. For most the past decade, Russia has done little to challenge the U.S. monopoly over the mediation efforts. But they have parleyed between the Israelis and Palestinians since the outbreak of violent confrontation from Sept. 28. The Palestinians, supported by other Arab states, have shown some eagerness to have Russia on board an expanded mediation team.

Despite having linkages in the Gulf region that were diametrically different from that which the U.S. has, Russia had refrained from playing the great power game that the Soviet Union played. Russia did not join the ``dual containment'' policy of the U.S. but its linkages to Iraq and Iran were conditioned more by economic considerations with the strategic dimensions being played down considerably.

However, the Russian Foreign Minister, Mr. Igor Ivanov, enunciated a new strategic perspective during his recent visit to Saudi Arabia. Calling for a new system to prevent conflict in the region, he proposed that a first step be made by establishing criteria for determining the ``reasonable levels of troops and armed forces'' that each country in the region would be allowed to retain given its defence capabilities.

``In other words, matters must be pursued to create a regional system of security and co-operation which will allow us to avoid a repetition of wars and conflicts in this strategically important region'', Mr. Ivanov said. This is not going as far as Iran which wants regional security to be maintained exclusively through regional co-operation and without any U.S. input. But in placing the emphasis on regional security, Russia has moved at least half way to the Iranian position.

After the Russian President, Mr. Vladimir Putin's visit to India this year, an analyst in one of India's leading English dailies had written about how Russia was now a ``has been'' power. Russia is no doubt going through an extremely difficult time and it is possible that it will be a lengthy period of time before that country overcomes the difficulties. But people make up a nation. Nobody who has seen the level of enterprise that individual Russians, and others from the former Soviet Union, display in these parts would be in a hurry to write them off. In West Asia, Russians are disparagingly spoken of as being heavily involved in crime and prostitution. But Russians are slowly marking their presence in other areas of economic activity, especially in re- export of consumer durables and other goods. What they do display is a ferocious work ethic and a ruthlessness in the pursuit of their interests. A nation made up of such people just cannot be written off.

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Section  : International
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