More posturing by China, Taiwan before negotiations

By F.J. Khergamvala

TOKYO, APRIL. 25. Taiwan's President-elect, Mr. Chen Shui-bian and the mainland Chinese leadership are jockeying and posturing before finding common ground on a critical negotiating issue that will set the tone for future negotiations. The U.S. is helping find this common ground.

Mr. Chen is to be inaugurated on May 20 in Taipei. He has been busy consolidating himself at home, preparing his Cabinet. On the foreign policy front, as he contemplates negotiations with Beijing, the most important factor is China's requirement that Mr. Chen should agree to negotiate on the basis of Taiwan being part of ``one-China.'' Even if there is room to manoeuvre on how each side approaches the goal, the key to a breakthrough is a mutual appreciation of what constitutes the ``one-China'' goal.

China has been following a multi-track approach in the run up to the inauguration of the new Taiwanese President. This approach includes insisting, directly and through U.S. intermediaries, that Taiwan agree to early negotiations on the basis of one- China; heaping insults on Vice-President-elect, Ms. Annette Lu, known to be a hard-liner; using unofficial U.S. channels to re- open bridges with Taiwan and seeking moderation from the U.S. on the grounds that tilting too far towards Taiwan could encourage brash behaviour by the new Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The DPP's charter opposes unification and advocates a separate Taiwan.

Last Friday, Mr. Chen said there was room to discuss the idea of a federation, as suggested by an adviser to the outgoing President, Mr. Lee Teng-hui. Mr. Chen has not put this idea forward as his own but it could be one way of moving towards a unification with the mainland. Mr. Chen said, after meeting the adviser that the suggestion was worth considering. Without directly drawing a parallel, Mr. Chen also seemed to allude to his own concept of the ``sunshine policy'' crafted by the South Korean President, Mr. Kim Dae Jung, with regard to North Korea. Mr. Chen said the thick icy wall between Taiwan and China could best be broken down by relying ``on the warmth of the sun to melt it.'' He cautioned Beijing to be patient and not to make it difficult for him by continuing threats of military action.

China has applied some sustained pressure on Mr. Chen to set a schedule to open negotiations, but only on the basis that Taiwan is a part of one-China. A fortnight ago, Mr. Chen said, ``There are varied definitions of `one-China.' Even the U.S. and China are different on `one-China.'''

After the visit to China by the U.S. National Security Adviser, Mr. Sandy Berger earlier this month, it became known that China has been telling the U.S. to insist on Mr. Chen that the inauguration speech must contain a commitment to ``one- China.'' Mr. Chen has not commented specifically on how he would refer to this in the speech but he has already said that his speech would help east tensions. The mainland does not seem to have paid much heed to this. It has continued its typical, crude ``Made in China'' personal insults and defamation policy against Ms. Annette Lu. ``Hideous face,'' ``scum of the nation,'' were just two of the preferred insults of the Chinese propaganda machinery. The U.S. has acted judiciously in not agreeing to sell Taiwan four Aegis class destroyers, for now. This prevents Taiwan from seeking a direct anti-missile umbrella under the idea of the Theatre Missile Defence scheme.

Agreeing to meet China's request so soon after a hard-line Government in Taiwan has been elected might have worsened cross- strait relations.

But, in trying to craft a policy of deterring Taiwanese radicals from ill- considered actions, the mainland has gone too far in insulting a person who will be the island's Vice-President.

A four-member U.S. team has just been in Taiwan and is now in China as part of the track II (unofficial) negotiations. Hopefully, they will counsel Beijing that insults could harden postures in Taipei.

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Section  : International
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